Friday Figures for 4/20/2012

It’s already the 20th of the month?? Let’s have some Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. This is what you and your REALTOR really need to know before touring, making an offer, or preparing a listing in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend.

Summary: Last year we had 14708 available properties, but now we only have 6207. Yikes! At least the rate of inventory dropping is slowing (the number of available condos did actually rise slightly). And remember, interest rates in mid-April of 2011 were 4.91%! Not surprisingly, there is upwards price pressure. Even the supply of short sales is down, although like other parts of the country there are more short sales than foreclosures available. Traditional sellers are starting to list, lured out by good weather and improved prices. The number of short sales under contract is up sharply from last year, but read the news below to see why I’m not worried about it. Now how’s this for odd coincidences: Median price on sold property is almost exactly what it was a year ago. Granted, we had a period where it was lower, but I consider this a good sign.

The News: Short sale timelines will be getting shorter on any property with a mortgage owned by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac — and that’s over half of all mortgages here in the states. Bank of America is leading the way, approving more short sales than any other servicer or lender. Great news for anybody involved in a short sale! And experts are starting to agree with me that this is the Year of the Short Sale!

Existing home sales were down in March compared to February. However, inventory is down sharply from last year nationwide — which explains light sales in March despite being a longer month than February.

Read the rest of Friday Figures for 4/20/2012

Things that can Go Wrong in Escrow — and What to Do About It

There’s an accepted purchase offer. Great! That doesn’t mean your transaction is a done deal. This is not a comprehensive list, but rather some of the problems you may encounter:

Bank Addendum has unacceptable terms: If you are buying a foreclosure, the bank that owns the property will send you a big addendum with terms that over-ride your local paperwork. This document is written by a team of lawyers and is not negotiable. Read it carefully! If the buyer can’t live with the terms, the only thing to do is walk away.

Inspection turns up problems: This is why buyers should always do a property inspection. Sometimes the problems are much worse than expected. As a buyer, you can ask for reasonable repairs in most cases. However, most bank owned properties are sold “as is, no repairs prior to close.” In the case of a short sale, the seller might not have the money to make repairs. The buyer might have the ability to negotiate a lower price based on the inspection report, but it is unlikely on foreclosures and short sales. A traditional seller hit with a bad inspection report has the option of making reasonable repairs or offering a lower price. This is a great reason for sellers to pay for a property inspection up front — the opportunity to make repairs before somebody else finds a problem, or adjust the price up front.

Short Sale Approval Doesn’t Work Out: After months of looking at the seller’s financial papers, the bank can come up with one of 3 replies: yes, no, or new terms. Since the bank will be losing tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars, they do get the last word. If the bank comes up with a higher price or other terms that are not acceptable to the buyer or the seller, the only option is to end the transaction. What might be unacceptable to the seller? No release of deficiency or a big out of pocket payment at closing! What might be unacceptable to the buyer? Higher closing costs, a higher purchase price, or an unreasonably short time in which to close. If the bank’s terms just won’t work for either party, the only answer is to cancel.

Title Problems: These days, it’s increasingly common to have a problem caught by the nice folks at title: a forgotten lien, delinquent HOA payments, sometimes even a seller who doesn’t actually own the property! Only the seller can fix these problems, and it does take time. The seller should probably cancel the transaction, clear the problem, and put the property back on the market.

Appraisal Comes Back Low: The buyer’s mortgage company is not going to let the buyer borrow more than the property is worth. That leaves 3 options: the buyer can come up with the difference between the purchase price and the appraised value  in cash (not always possible), the buyer and seller can negotiate a lower price close to or even at the appraised value, or the buyer can walk away. This leaves the seller in a bad position, since that appraisal is likely to come up again.

New Loan Conditions based on Appraisal: The appraiser may notice something that must be fixed — at least in the mind of the lender! Sometimes these items are minor, like a couple more smoke detectors. Sometimes they are major, like a new roof! The loan will not fund without the required repairs. A traditional seller can be pressured to make repairs. When the seller can’t or won’t make repairs, the buyer has a problem. I will never recommend that a buyer make repairs on a property he doesn’t own. But usually, a buyer can either put money into escrow towards repairs to be made after close, or in some cases get a home improvement loan for the express purpose of making those repairs after close!

HOA Rules or Fees Unacceptable: Most states require the seller to make sure the buyer gets a copy of the HOA documents before close. The buyer should have an opportunity to read things like the community policies and budget before closing. Sometimes, things pop up in those documents that just won’t work. Perhaps the buyer planned to rent out the property and the HOA doesn’t allow rentals. Perhaps the buyer hoped to paint in new colors or renovate the landscape in a way that isn’t allowed. The buyer has the right to back out and there’s not really much the seller can do.

Loan Problems: I find this to be the most common item. Sometimes a buyer does something without thinking that it might effect their mortgage: open a line of credit at a furniture store to buy stuff for the new place; have a garage sale for all the stuff they aren’t moving and deposit a large sum of cash in the bank. Most loan problems can be overcome, but they take time. Buyers should ask their mortgage professional up front what things they should avoid in escrow, and keep very good financial records in case a problem comes up. Again, not much the seller can do.

Unexpected delays: Sometimes things just take longer than they should. No matter which side is to “blame,” the only answer is an extension addendum. This basically says “I know we agreed to close on this date, but we will close by this later date instead.” Be sure to ask for as much time as you need up front — and within reason! — because most people are reluctant to grant a second extension.

I hope this is helpful. Good luck!

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Friday Figures for 4/13/2012

Time for a special triskaidekaphobia issue of Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. This is the REAL data you and your REALTOR really need to know before touring, making an offer, or preparing a listing in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend.

Summary: Did you miss me last week? I was out of town and had limited internet access. The number of available units continues to plummet! There are only 6382 left. I am recommending new construction to any buyer whose budget will allow it: no bidding wars, nothing to fix up, rarely an issue with appraisal. The good news for sellers is that limited supply is pushing prices up — particularly on single family homes and non-short listings. And traditional sellers are taking advantage of this: over half our current listings are classics! One interesting detail is that Million Dollar Plus listings are moving faster than I’ve ever seen. Is this a sign of froth, or just overdue interest? Not too surprisingly, the number of properties under contract is up. Interest in low cost properties is pushing the median price of both contingent and sold units down. Just because a contract is signed doesn’t make it a “done deal”: 4 units fell out of contract while I was calculating the breakdown. We still have strong numbers of closings, and time on market is dropping. I’ll bring it full circle by pointing out that with just over 6000 listings and just over 4000 closings, we have roughly 6 weeks of available inventory. If you are at all thinking of selling, this is the time to reach out to your Realtor and make it happen.

The News: Some economists think housing prices will bottom this year and start to rise next year nationwide — unless of course we have another wave of foreclosures or “shadow inventory” coming on to the market. Remember, I’m skeptical of most doomsday shadow inventory projections. Meanwhile, foreclosure activity hasn’t been this low since 2007 (I promise a post about why soon).

I’ve talked about Nevada’s Hardest Hit Funds before. It’s still a great program worth looking into. However, a watchdog group thinks that most Hardest Hit Funds aren’t doing all they can to help homeowners (although their beefs seem to have more to do with “not sticking it to the banks hard enough”).

Now that the foreclosure fraud settlement is officially approved by a judge, there’s some press about what happens now. Will there really be a lot of principal reductions? Personally I think principal write-offs are the only way to really strengthen the market going forward; banks have to admit that homes will not sell for what they did in the bubble anytime soon and take their medicine. Meanwhile, the financial fraud task force and banks are still hammering out details. That’s why your mortgage statement will be changing soon.

People outside the Valley are starting to notice that our home sales are up and our inventory is down.

Interest rates  on the 30 year fixed mortgage have hit yet another low, well under 4%. Despite this, Cash Is Still King when it comes to writing an offer.

And finally, if you are involved in a short sale with Bank of America, make sure your Realtor is aware of the paperwork change that goes into effect this weekend.

Read the rest of Friday Figures for 4/13/2012

HARP 2.0 is Here

John Ingram of GB Shelter Mortgage was kind enough to brief my office on the rules for the Home Affordable Refinance Program 2.0, or HARP 2.0 for short. If it sounds like this will help you, I will gladly put you in touch with his office!

To qualify, all these things must be true:

  1. The mortgage must be taken out before the end of May of 2009.
  2. You have to be up to date on your payments, with no late payments for 6 months.
  3. You must have income and decent credit
  4. Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac must own your loan. Not sure if they do? Follow the links and enter your information to find out.

There is no limit on loan-to-value — that is, you can be very underwater and still qualify, unlike the original HARP program. It’s not limited to owner occupants either, so investors and owners of second homes are welcome to apply. If you currently have mortgage insurance, it has to be the kind that can transfer to the new loan. You can theoretically lower your interest rate to under 5%. You can even roll your closing costs into the loan and not owe any money at closing! And you don’t have to run the refinancing through your current servicer.

That’s a lot of good stuff. Now let me remind you of the not-so-good stuff. HARP 2.0 won’t help you if you are unemployed, behind on your payments, or both. You will still need to provide all the normal documentation for a mortgage: tax information, pay stubs, bank statements, etc.. You will have to provide some information you may not have kept from when you bought the house. Further, you may need a new appraisal — even though the loan is not tied to the value of the property. This program does not involve any principal reduction. That is, if you owe $50k more than the property is worth, you will still owe that money. If you roll your closing costs into the loan, you will owe that money too — with interest.

As John said, the idea of HARP 2.0 is to prevent strategic default and keep people who can afford their homes from walking away to get a lower interest rate. The fact is that you’ll still be underwater. This plan is designed for people who want to and are able to stay in their homes. If you think you will be needing to move in the next few years for any reason — health, job transfer, whatever — then this is not the plan for you. All you’ll be doing is delaying your short sale.

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Low Interest Rates and Prices Driving Sales in Las Vegas Valley

Don’t take my word for it, read it in the Las Vegas Sun. Well, on second thought, do take my word for it: I’m quoted near the bottom of the article.

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CNN Gets it Half Right

Don’t think I forgot about the fact that new FHA standards and fees went into effect at the first of the month. I work with a lot of cash customers, so I don’t stress financing as much as many of my colleagues. CNN wrote a nice story on the changes with an important error:

The Federal Housing Administration is about to make it even tougher to borrow money from Uncle Sam to buy a home.

Now let me makes something perfectly clear: when you take out an FHA loan, you do not borrow money from the government. You borrow that money from a bank just like you would a conventional loan. The FHA doesn’t lend anything; they guaranty your performance on the loan. You will pay mortgage insurance to the FHA for this privilege.

That being said, it is correct that the new rules will prevent an FHA loan if there is a large credit dispute. As always, I urge borrowers to check their credit reports and get them cleaned up before getting excited about buying a home. Some mortgage officers can help you clean your credit, and others know somebody who can help if there is a problem.

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Fun to Look, but Not Available

Believe it or not, somebody lives in each of these 9 homes.

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A couple items on Due Diligence

Hi folks!

Once you get a property under contract, you have a period of time where you find out everything you can about the property. That’s called “Due Diligence.”

One document you’ll see at this time is called a Preliminary Title Report. It’s dry reading — a list of all the public documents like purchases and liens — but here’s why you need to sit down and read it anyway.

Another thing that happens is the appraisal. It’s supposed to make sure that you aren’t getting ripped off and that the property is really worth what you’re paying for it. But what happens when it comes in low?

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Friday Figures for 3/30/2012

Thanks for dropping by to read the Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. Don’t be fooled by anything you may read tomorrow: this is what you and your REALTOR really need to know before touring, making an offer, or preparing a listing in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend.

Summary: Ok Las Vegans, it’s time to put property you don’t want or need on the market. We’re down to 7056 available. If a Prudential Americana Group REALTOR knocks on your door and says she has a buyer for a home like yours, she is not kidding! She might have that buyer in the car. The silver lining of this is of course that median prices are going up. Median price on classic listings is back over $200k for the first time in a long time. Supply of property under $50,000 is dwindling, and it is my hope that means the segment is going away. As expected, we had a high number of properties close this week before month and quarter end.

The News: Case and Shiller can’t seem to get their stories straight, but they see current price declines. Meanwhile S&P sees prices steady! Remember these are national numbers and don’t reflect what we see locally. Interesting point: despite what the index numbers say, supply is down and bidding wars are the order of the day nationally — partly because foreclosures are down nationwide.

Even thought principal reductions might be a good thing — admitting that some homes will never be worth what is owed, making investors take their medicine and freeing up homeowners — they are few and far between. This is despite the encouragements in the huge foreclosure fraud settlement. Don’t expect much help from HARP 2.0 either.

Read the rest of Friday Figures for 3/30/2012

Thank Goodness Somebody Told Me

Alert the media!

Bank of America — one of the Too Big To Fail instutuions that helped bring terms like “robosigning” into our vocabulary –has made an important announcement: the housing crash is over. Of course, the analyst who appeared on Bloomberg did have to hedge her bets just a little:

We do think that home prices are in the process of bottoming right now, but we do think that it’s going to be a very bumpy bottoming—one that lasts through the end of next year, and then you start to see home prices turn higher in 2014.

Of course, we’ve already seen Vegas prices bottom and turn. Prices of available foreclosed homes are up 17% over last summer’s bottom. Prices on short sales and classic listings are up too. Builders are reportedly writing prices on floorplans in pencil because prices can and do change quickly. Prices on sold properties aren’t showing the gains just yet, but they likely will within 60 days as our lowest priced properties move off the market and short sales get approved.

When it comes to local real estate, I truly do live in “interesting times.”

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