It is true that Vegas housing prices have been dropping. It is also true that this drop has been accelerating over the last 4 months, and is even quite evident at the lower end of the market. As a case in point, here’s the latest Average Joe Median Price Index. One thing that is not obvious from this summary is that the drop is on declining volume. In short, even though actual closing prices are dropping, fewer homes are selling. Furthermore, this trend is over a long period, and not just a single month “who wants to move at Christmastime anyway” blip.

Now, if this were a stock chart, this data alone would not make me a buyer yet; a move on small volume is not necessarily to be trusted. However, there was still a huge drop in available listings over the last few months. The decline in total available listings was not due to homes being sold, but rather due to “expired” listings: homes that did not sell eventually were taken off the market because the listing agreement was out of date. Other homes were “withdrawn”: taken off market before the expiration date. Some of these unsold homes may re-appear on the market, but the combined number of “closed,” “withdrawn,” and “expired” listings makes for the sizable volume required to make my inner stock-chartist happy.

When you combine this with current mortgage rates — with good credit, a 30-year fixed rate can be had for well under 6%! — it looks like a a good time to buy in my opinion. Sure, prices may continue to decline for several months. Surely you are planning to own a home or condo for more than 6 months, aren’t you? And will interest rates be this low in several months? Even if Mr. Bernanke decides that rising commodity prices are a bigger risk to the economy than the mortgage mess?

This is a good time to contact me about selecting your Vegas house or condominium.

Follow Up: Another sign stock traders use to determine market direction is sentiment. But sentiment is an inverse indicator: When everyone is “bullish” is actually the time that things are about to change for the worse! The majority of people actually anticipating worse times in the market is actually a sign that things will change for the better. That being said, this rather small, not scientific survey from Tim Iocono suggests that only 3% of his readers expect a nationwide bottom in housing prices this year, and many readers think we won’t see a bottom until 2013. If sentiment is an inverse indicator in the housing market as it tends to be in the stock market, this is very good news indeed.

Happy New Year, folks!  Here’s some little tidbits for you:

First we have the story of how a bank became the victim of a huge mortgage fraud scam (which may also have artificially inflated California real estate prices).

Details are surfacing that some sub-prime lenders were actively working to circumvent state-level regulations that would have protected consumers from risky and inappropriate loans.

Next up, a premiere peek at the Palazzo, Las Vegas’s newest casino-resort.   There are 3000 rooms, and the facility itself will employ 4000 workers in 420 job categories.  This of course says nothing of the jobs that will be generated providing goods and services to the 4000 workers and the occupants of those 3000 rooms.

If you are planning on selling a home in the near future, here’s some recommended reading on remodeling and repairs.

And last but not least,  popular Vegas productions for 2008.