USA Today put the news very succinctly: “Home prices rise in 17 cities in June; gains not expected to last.” In fact, nationwide prices were up 3.6% over last year. It is important to point out that the rise was at least partly due to the home buyers tax credit.

There is no point in glossing over the fact that Vegas was not one of those 17 cities that showed gains. Our prices dropped 0.6% from May and 5.2% from last year. None of this is a surprise to Friday Figures readers.

One thing that might help communities long term is that banks are giving government and non-profit groups an opportunity to buy properties before they hit the open market, giving them the means to renovate and replenish the supply of decent, affordable housing. The complaint is that these properties get bid up by speculators. I’d just like to remind people that banks are in the business of making money — or in this case, minimizing their losses. I suspect that these groups will end up paying inflated prices or get stuck with the least desirable properties, perhaps both. It is in any event a clever way to hide what some consider “shadow inventory.”

I do have one more thing I would like to talk about: what the RJ considers “inefficiencies” in the short sale process. The example they cite is someone who has been trying to get a short sale approved for almost a year. Two appraisals were done shortly after they first got the purchase offer last October; now the bank wants a third. They promise to have an answer soon. Here’s what will probably happen: the bank will approve the sale, the buyer will tell their mortgage company, and a 4th appraisal will be ordered so they can finalize the new mortgage; this last appraisal will come in roughly 5% under the purchase price (remember, prices have dropped 5.2% over the last year?); the deal will die and the house will end up being foreclosed upon. The bank will end up losing even more money on the deal because they dragged their feet.

Here we are with another edition of Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. This is the no-nonsense data you and your Realtor need to know before touring, listing, or making a purchase offer in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend.

Summary: It’s no surprise that available units are up, yet again, to 13,832. Nor is it surprising that median price on those units is slipping just a little, mostly on non-distressed properties. Pending and contingent properties stopped dropping, and now sit a little over 14,000. The number of contingent short sales continues to ever so slowly go down, and that is a very good thing for the long term. Closings have settled into their mid-month lull (Pro-tip: if you can close on your home mid-month, it will make your mortgage and title people happy and things are likely to run more smoothly). List price and final sales price on closed units remain very close to one another; this is not a time for low-ball offers if you really want the property.

Other Information: Last week Fannie wanted more money from the Feds? This week it was Freddie’s turn. The NAR assures us that home prices are “firming” nationally, but even NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun “urged caution on interpreting price data.” And remember that locally, there are several communities with problematic Kitec plumbing fittings. It’s an estimated 30,000 homes effected, so be sure to ask your home inspector about it. This is a far bigger deal locally than the tainted drywall issues in some parts of the country. I thankfully haven’t encountered any of that drywall (experts tell me it’s unlikely here), but I sure do know some developments with Kitec issues!

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Let me start with the good news. Foreclosure filings across the nation are down 10% from last year. Default notices have been declining for 6 months on a year-over-year basis.

Filings were down in Nevada by 30% from last year, but we’re still the top state for foreclosure filings for the 43rd straight month. One in 81 homes statewide and 1 in 78 Clark County homes were somewhere in the foreclosure process. Remember, that’s everything from Notice of Default through in the MLS as a bank-owned property, not just foreclosures on the courthouse steps.

One last thing: the FHA has a new program for underwater homeowners who are up to date on their payments, but do not currently have an FHA loan. If that describes you, it’s worth talking to a mortgage expert. However, I suspect that few people will qualify and few banks will want to participate.

To be brutally honest, I don’t think things are as bleak as the nice people from the Huffington Post would have you believe. And I find their closing example insulting: a man who just can’t find people to sell fire extinguishers door to door in the desert heat in the middle of summer for what probably works out to less than minimum wage. I’m not lining up for that job either. It is true that we lead the nation in foreclosures, but it’s also true that foreclosure filings are down 15% from last year. The crush of foreclosures and short sales (and the expiration of the buyer’s tax credit) has driven prices down slightly since April. Nevertheless I’m hearing ads for real estate investing seminars and getting ads in my email, so clearly some people think it’s time to take advantage of these lower prices.

It’s also true that the drop in housing prices has meant that Realtor’s commission checks are smaller than they used to be. Strangely enough, I find it encouraging for the Review Journal to print quotes like this:

“So you’d better have a different job because there are 12,000 agents and maybe 500 or 1,000 are making it along and the others are not,” [Real Estate Agent Joe Stewart] said.

Actually there’s over 16,000 licensees in Clark County according to the Real Estate Division. Not all of them are Realtors. As peculiar as it seems, I am looking forward to seeing the number of Realtors in the Valley decline. Hopefully the ones of us that are left will be the smartest and the best.

Thanks for reading Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. Here’s what you really need to know before touring, listing, or making a purchase offer this weekend.

Summary: We’re up to 12960 available units, just under 13,000 and about a 30% increase from the low we set earlier this year. No surprise that prices are under downward pressure. Contingent and pending listings are down, however, and we may eventually work through the huge backlog of contingent short sales one way or another. 600-700 closing properties a week seems to be the “new normal” for a little while, but I do expect more closings this coming week as banks try to clear the July books.

Other Information: Unfortunately, the economy is of great concern going forward. Nevada unemployment is at 14.2% and in the Las Vegas Valley it’s 14.5%. Builders are also nervous about the economy. Home sales are slowing nationwide — which the experts did anticipate after the home buyer tax credit expired. This week has also seen a lot of criticism of how few people have really been helped by the HAMP program — and a few pointing out how little help it is to some of the people who have gotten modifications. There is still some good news to report: mortgage rates are at yet another all time low; many Clark Country residents got lower property tax bills in the mail this week (which may result in budget shortfalls, but that’s another issue); and apartment rents are down. So far I have seen no real drop in rental home prices, partly because those owners have fixed expenses and a slightly different business plan.

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