First of all, don’t forget to watch the latest Getting REAL (Estate) in Vegas for an overview of East side neighborhoods, condo financing criteria, and more!

Let’s tackle home sales and prices. Some experts expect prices nationally to drop another 8% from here, for a total 34% drop. Needless to say, Vegas prices have already dropped much more than that. Local experts in commercial properties think that particular sector is done going down. So if you are considering a commercial lease, you may want to strike while the iron is hot. As for local residential properties, experts noted the same slump in sales that I did, but fairly strong prices. The rate of home ownership is at it’s lowest level since 1999 (yes, that’s a picture of a man riding a horse down the street in a relatively rural part of Vegas; yes I can help you find a home that’s friendly for your horse). Not surprisingly if fewer people own their homes, market conditions for apartment complexes are improving. For a great summary of housing economics, you can’t beat Calculated Risk.

Now what you all want to know about: foreclosures. There are over 4.3 million loans that are more than 90 days past due or in the foreclosure process, even though the process itself is being slowed. Some state officials are being very aggressive about insisting that the law be followed (my inner cynic asks why bother now). There is more evidence that the failure of mortgage modification programs does lead to foreclosures. The IMF now believes that our current high unemployment rate is caused by underwater mortgages and foreclosures (you would think foreclosures at least would be caused by unemployment, not the other way around!)

If you’ve got a problem with defective drywall purchased at Lowe’s, there is an amended settlement agreement that you need to read up about.

And finally, it isn’t every week that a celebrity’s home sells. Danny Gans’s home sold for $9,000,000. It was a 10 year old, 3000 square foot home with a 20 car garage.

Nevertheless, what is bad news for investors may be great news for new and/or growing business ventures. High vacancy puts potential tenants in a great position to negotiate a favorable lease.

While commercial real estate is not my area of expertise, I will gladly refer interested parties to a qualified licensee.

As a bonus, here’s an item on a new report speculating that the Las Vegas Valley may be overbuilt. While this may not be good news, it does mean that there are some great housing and commercial real estate bargains to be had right now.

Due to scheduling issues beyond my control, Friday Figures will probably be published tomorrow afternoon instead of tomorrow morning. Any inconvenience this may cause is regrettable.

More on the Cosmopolitan: Deutsche Bank has had to write down a half billion euros — about $748 million — and there is no clear opening date in sight.

I’ve said before that the housing crisis will not be over until the banking crisis is over as well. The two are just too intertwined. Well, banking reforms may be further away than we would like, and the TARP is looking more like a cover-up than a life-preserver every day. In fact, I am more certain than ever that as bad an idea as it is, it would have been a better use of taxpayer money to put up to $100,000 towards every American mortgage than to continue to prop up huge banks that aren’t accountable to anybody. At least paying off people’s mortgages would have changed the fact that we now have record high delinquency rates.

Housing starts — that’s beginning construction of new housing — is at a new low. Permits to build housing are down too. Surprisingly, that’s a good thing if you think we have an oversupply of housing. It of course isn’t very good news at all if you work in construction.

I do have to say that I am very concerned by the disconnect between the economy you and I see on the streets and the economy that Wall Street is apparently enjoying. I can’t see the Wall Street economy continuing forever, nor pulling the rest of the nation up. Let’s face it, most jobs are not created by huge publicly traded corporations, but rather by the small businesses that are having a hard time getting financing right now. And until we have enough jobs, the housing industry will have something less than smooth sailing.

And on a happy note, there is a movement to create a new national park in the Northwest part of town. An area called the Upper Las Vegas Wash is home to many fossils.

Other local projects [besides One Las Vegas and Streamline Towers] financed by Corus include Meridian ($111.3 million), Platinum ($87.6 million), Loft 5 ($56.5 million), Juhl ($106.2 million), Newport Lofts ($67.1 million), Panorama Towers ($236.3 million), Village Green ($60 million), the Residence Las Vegas ($56.8 million), Soho Lofts ($49.3 million), Copper Canyon ($43 million), Boulders at Lone Mountain ($40.2 million), Verano ($39.5 million) and Spanish Palms ($28.2 million).

At least 3 condo developments and one commercial property are likely to be sold. Of $7 billion in loans, $2 billion are “non-performing” — bank talk for not being paid. While this could be a great opportunity for a well-capitalized investor, it more likely spells future trouble for our luxury and high rise condo market.

People who signed up to buy condos in the City Center project are not very happy right now. They bought near the top of the market, and prices in general have plunged 52% since then according to Case and Shiller. Worse yet, many of the people who bought high and early were MGM executives and high rollers. Ouch.

This is more interesting than bad, but the nice folks at Rain City Guide wonder about the wisdom of spending lots of money on rooms your family doesn’t even use.

Office vacancy is up to 15.9%, and apartment vacancy rates are at at 22 year high.

And mortgage fraud is is up… or at least awareness of it is.

If you want the good news too, come back tomorrow for Friday Figures. I will be focusing on year-over-year figures. Except for the drop in prices, things aren’t that bad.

Economist and real estate expert Robert Shiller (whose name you may recall from the Case-Shiller index) says that real estate prices will continue to drop “for some time.” Please remember that he is speaking about a nationwide trend, not particularly about any specific real estate market.

Important news for our do-it-yourself crowd! If your home is in an unincorporated section of Clark County (NV) and perhaps you’ve forgotten to pull a permit on a home project, you can still make your upgrades perfectly legal and avoid penalties through a permit amnesty program. Contact the county right away, because this program won’t last long. If you are in Las Vegas, North Las Vegas, or Henderson, you will still have to deal with the city permit office.

In News of the Obvious, someone points out that the real estate market won’t really get better nationwide until we have better job creation numbers. Since it’s been months since jobs were really created in this nation, and we spent most of the first half of the decade not making as many new jobs as were really needed, it may take a while to catch up.

A bad economy, lost jobs, and lost real estate values have created a situation where foreclosure is now no longer a sub-prime problem. Nor is the problem just in residential real estate any more: commericial defauls are at a 17 year high.

Here in Nevada, our legislature passed a bill to require mediation in some foreclosure actions. The rules for these mediation sessions are currently being written by our courts. I predict that most homeowners trying to force mediation will discover that large multi-state banks are federally regulated, and banks will claim they are exempt from this state requirement. The truth is there is very little state regulators and courts can do to them.

New rules that were supposed to make appraisals more uniform and less subject to influence by Realtors and lenders are actually making things worse.

And last, a bit of humor — Squat 2 Own Realty. I do NOT advocate any of the methods described! It’s strictly meant as humor. On a serious note, pay attention when viewing “vacant” homes, because they are a target for real life squatters.

Another welcome sign, Mojave Max has emerged from his hibernation at the Desert Tortoise Conservation Center. That makes it “officially spring” for some Las Vegans. 

If you live in Vegas, your mortgage is with Chase, and you are having trouble making payments, please be aware of their Nevada Homeownership Center near N Rainbow and 215. They would rather help you out than own yet more houses.

Maybe things are slower than usual here in Vegas, but City Center is still under construction, with parts set to open later this year. 

It seems that in many parts of the country, apartment vacancy rates are way up! While it is true that when people lose their jobs, they often lose their means for paying for housing, I wonder where all those residents have gone. Mom and Dad’s place? Bunking with friends? I wonder what will happen when summer “leasing season” arrives.

Last item: Realtors, their clients, and title officers need to be on the lookout for mortgage fraud. Read your closing statements. Do your best to understand them. Here’s a place to start. Ask for explanations where you do not understand. If it’s not on the closing statement, it isn’t supposed to happen. 

I’ll see you again for Friday Figures!

The Las Vegas resort promises 28 restaurants and lounges including a 5,000-square-foot “chocolate experience,” award-winning chefs including Alfred Portale and Scott Conant, Michelin-rated Cantonese cuisine, a noodle shop and a gelato bar. Fontainebleau also will feature a 60,000-square-foot spa with 33-foot-high ceilings above plunge pools, “hypnotic columns of light” and “varying intensities of rain showers.” At least four outdoor pools will offer various settings, including a “whimsical topiary garden,” a bar with an open kitchen and Champagne and caviar service poolside.

The Las Vegas resort had planned to sell as many as 1,000 condo-hotel units, which banks have largely sworn off as risky investments.

Some analysts say Fontainebleau might end up renting the condo-hotel units as regular hotel rooms if they don’t sell.

This is great news for the local economy. Historically, a Vegas hotel room creates 2 jobs working in the resort, and more jobs within the community for a total of 7 jobs per hotel room. This facility will have 3,815 rooms, not counting any condos that will become suites. Between jobs at the hotel, jobs at the 28 restaurants, jobs at the spa, it’s easy to see the 2 jobs. It’s a little more difficult to measure the jobs in the community as cashiers, accountants, teachers, lawyers, and others. So this project will create a bare minimum of 7,600 jobs, and perhaps as many as 26,700 jobs across the Valley!

Of course, all these people are going to need places to live. Fortunately, we have roughly 17,000 single family homes, 1,300 townhomes, and 3,200 condos available right now, with a median price of $175,000, down 44% from the peak. 

If you need a place to live in Vegas, please click the “Contact Me!” link in the sidebar, or call the number at the top of the page now! I can help you find everthing from affordable housing to dream homes in gated communities, saving your valuable time.