Archive for April, 2010

Friday Figures for 4/30/2010

It’s the end of the week and the end of the month. Thanks for taking time to read Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. No joke and no spin: this is what you and your Realtor need to know before touring, making an offer, or listing a home in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend.

Summary: Available units dropped slightly again to 10034. It looks like we may have hit a stable level of listings for at least a few weeks. Contingent and pending listings rose again, remaining over 16,000. Needless to say, the number of contingent short sales rose as well. Some experts are reporting that even banks that participate in the HAFA program are sometimes representing investors that do not. It is hoped that new systems will speed the majority of these short sales through the system — in which case the ability of escrow companies to close thousands of additional transactions may become an issue. Closings were strong this week ahead of month-end. The number of short sales that did actually close in the last 30 days and the number of non-distressed sales that closed in the last 30 days both rose, which is good news. Rental inventory did drop: a good sign for property owners but not for those seeking a lease.

Other Information: There’s mixed news on housing prices nationwide, but there are signs of “recovery” from hitting 2003 prices (locally, more like 2001-2002 prices in most neighborhoods). The rate of home ownership is down to 2000 levels. Experts tell us that the home buyer tax credits that will be running out soon did work, but at a steep price. Meanwhile, other experts think it will take 9 years for banks to dig out from under foreclosed inventory (surely an incentive for them to approve some short sales!). I also have 3 local interest items today: all Clark County School District schools will be on a 9 month calendar next year, saving $21,000,000 and many parental headaches; delay on Real ID drivers licenses; and how Lake Mead’s water gets to Vegas homes. The month-end luxury report will be up either late today or first thing in the morning, so don’t forget to check back.

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Opportunity and Problem

The Vegas real estate market has come a long way in the last couple of years. Inventory is way down, prices are stable, there are signs that short sales may actually get approved, and some experts expect prices to go up roughly 5% by February of next year. This situation creates both a potential opportunity and a potential problem.

Some years back, I started defining “Investing” as “spending money with the reasonable expectation of receiving more money back.” Real estate is something that people have invested in for centuries. Sometimes it has been a spectacular investment, and at times it has been a poor investment, but most of the time real estate has been a good investment.

There are 3 basic ways people can make money investing in real estate:

  1. Buy property with the intent of selling it at a higher price at a later date, such as buying acreage near the edge of town in anticipation of future development
  2. Buy property and improve the property to increase its value, such as painting, fixing problems, adding rooms, or modernizing existing areas
  3. Rent out property that is owned or purchased by the investor

Most investors do a combination of these. For example, a developer can buy a property, build a shopping center, and rent out the stores to businesses. An investor can buy a house in desperate need of repair, renovate it, and either sell or rent it to a family. Real estate investment is necessary to a healthy economy because not every family and business can (or wants to) own real estate.

However, it is not a profession for the faint of heart. Many things can go wrong with a real estate investment: prices can drop; tenants can fail to pay the rent; roofs can develop leaks and water pipes can break; disasters can happen; laws can be passed that effect what you can and can’t do with your property or your tenants. Diligent investors can make a lot of money, sure, but it’s not foolproof.

Lately, I have heard ads on the radio for two different “make money investing in real estate” seminars. As much as we need investors, I am wary of this. I don’t think anybody can reasonably learn enough about real estate investing to avoid pitfalls in one day. I also am concerned that amateur investors armed with little more than a few hours training and maybe a couple of books could artificially raise prices. Since they would most likely be competing to purchase properties with buyers in the lower priced end of the market, not only would they be keeping cost-conscious buyers out of the market, they might end up purchasing properties that need a whole lot more work than it appears. I am concerned that these investors — like many investors who bought near the top — may find themselves in over their heads with no choice but to let the bank foreclose.

Real estate investing is a great way to make money, but you will need more than a copy of Rich Dad Poor Dad to make it work. You will need the advice of people who are experts in local real estate market conditions and the laws that apply to real estate transactions. You will need someone who is willing to point out the problems as well as the benefits of a particular property as it relates to your financial goals. And you will need to think for yourself about what those experts tell you, because many times those experts only get paid at the end of the transaction.

Serious about investing in Las Vegas? I can help find suitable properties and set you up with a quality property management team too. Lets talk!

Friday Figures for 4/24/2010

Welcome to Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. Here is what you and your Realtor need to know before touring, making an offer, or listing a home in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend.

Summary: Not surprisingly, available units are up slightly to 10127. That’s still a far cry from the 18077 we had at this time last year! Contingent and pending units rose again and are now over 16,000! It’s almost a 60% increase year over year. The market has come a long way since last year but we aren’t out of the woods yet. There are still thousands of short sales awaiting approval and new challenges on the horizon.

Other Information: Some experts say there is a new wave of foreclosures coming, and some other experts aren’t sure about that (be vigilant about foreclosure fraud if your home is at risk!). What is for certain is that both new and existing home sales are up. Hotel occupancy is up — great news for a town that lives on hospitality! The Nevada unemployment rate is up to 13.4% but the Las Vegas rate dropped slightly to 13.8%. Believe it or not, this isn’t what bothers me about the local market. I am much more concerned about speculators in the current environment, and I hope to write more about it tomorrow.

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Meet the Boss….

The rarely seen owner and CEO of Realty ONE Group — and my broker of record — Kuba Jewgieniew actually sat down for an interview with the Las Vegas Sun. Here’s the highlights.

REALTORS: If you are considering a change and you like what Kuba has to say, why not give me a call and get a first-hand view of what it’s like to work at Realty ONE Group?

Friday Figures for 4/16/2010

Everybody survived “Tax Day?” Whew! Thanks for dropping in and reading Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. This is what you and your Realtor need to know before touring, making an offer, or listing a home in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend.

Summary: We had another small drop in available inventory to 10014, and I would not be surprised to see a small rise next week. Contingent and pending listings rose again, poised to break through the 16,000 mark. Now all we need is to move those contingent short sales towards sale! Sales continue to move, but not as quickly as would be optimal. Final sales prices are solid, and there is some sign that bargain hunters may be making headway in the marketplace. Despite the problems in multi-family communities, available inventory of rental property in the MLS continues to drop. We can only hope that some of those contingent short sales will eventually become investor owned properties.

Other Information: There’s been a lot of talk this week about rising defaults — the first step in a foreclosure — and the failures of the government HAMP program. I’m starting to hear more about the “shadow inventory” that banks allegedly own but haven’t put on the market yet again, but the figures suggest that even if that is happening in some places, it certainly isn’t here! Experts think that our local residential real estate market has bottomed, but that commercial real estate has a long way to go, particularly multi-family (apartment) properties. And speaking of apartments, just a friendly reminder, unless it is an “age restricted communityit is against federal law to discriminate against families with children! If you experience this, report it to HUD!

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Vegas Living Odds and Ends

Just a few little items for those of you in town.

First, a “cash for appliances” program begins this coming Saturday. Let the state pay you up to $200 to upgrade your refrigerator, freezer, clothes washer, or dishwasher with a brand new energy efficient one! I’ve seen programs like this do very well in other parts of the country. Considering that we do live in a desert, it’s particularly important that we try to encourage the use of more efficient washers and dishwashers.

Here’s a list we wish we weren’t on: Forbes’s list of metropolitan areas where housing prices are “in free fall.” But regular readers of Friday Figures know that prices may be down year over year, but they are stable now. Stable prices are the first step in any recovery.

And one last item: our own CityCenter made Food and Wine Magazine’s “Go List” of 100 new food experiences. Unfortunately, it’s not available online yet. This year’s Best of Las Vegas came out just a couple of weeks ago, so it’s a good bet that some of these places will make the cut for 2011.

Friday Figures for 4/9/2010

Welcome to Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. Here’s the real data — not a bunch of guesses and impressions — that you and your Realtor need to know before touring, making an offer, or listing a home in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend.

Summary: Available listings dropped ever so slightly to 10045. One interesting tidbit is that available $1M+ homes rose for the first time in months! Is this a sign that owners of luxury homes think the market has stabilized, or a sign that they have given up on seeking better prices in the future? Contingent and pending listings rose, and remain over 15,000. However, 10200 are short sales awaiting approval. I have had the opportunity to discuss this issue with local experts this week: some believe that most of these listings are subject to HAFA rules and must be approved within a matter of weeks; others think this backlog will be taken care of in 6-9 months — a reasonable figure, but only if we start to see a lot more short sales closing weekly by the end of May. While we do have more short sales closing, it will take most of a year just to take care of current contingent listings at the present rate.

Other Information: If the City’s plans for an arena and entertainment district come to pass, it will mean a lot of jobs. But how will it compete with all the entertainment options at the big resort casinos? Experts predict that foreclosures will be with us for a while to come, and that specifically Bank of America expects to take back 45,000 properties across the nation. Hopefully B of A will limit themselves to foreclosing on homes they actually hold the note on! Another interesting trend is that rents are starting to rise on average nationally. It will be interesting to see if that happens here as well.

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Springtime in the Desert

These pictures of Death Valley wildflowers were too good not to pass along.

As a bonus, here’s an item on a new report speculating that the Las Vegas Valley may be overbuilt. While this may not be good news, it does mean that there are some great housing and commercial real estate bargains to be had right now.

Due to scheduling issues beyond my control, Friday Figures will probably be published tomorrow afternoon instead of tomorrow morning. Any inconvenience this may cause is regrettable.

Friday Figures for 4/2/2010

Thanks for reading Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. This is what you and your Realtor really need to know before touring, making an offer, or listing a home in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend.

Summary: Available listings continue to decline, now at just 10,090. It is very likely we may drop under the 10k mark next week. That’s a 7.6% drop in available inventory in the last month! Perhaps more exciting is that we’ve had the first real jump in median price of available single family homes in a long time. Contingent and pending units are down from last week’s levels on a strong number of closings, but still solidly above 15,000. However, over 10,000 are short sales awaiting approval; granted, new rules are supposed to go into effect and the number of short sales closing has gradually been trending upward, but it will take time to get through this backlog. Even so, many still may never close. It is mixed news that the number of available rental units went down again. This may squeeze rents up: good for investors, good for apartment managers with low occupancy, bad for renters in a region where unemployment is well over 10%.

Other Information: Bad news in commercial real estate, where half of commercial mortgages are estimated to be underwater. Since most of these properties are owned by corporations rather than people, there is effectively no consequence if the owners stop paying and walk away. That’s not really bad news for banks, however, because most banks have the resources to manage commercial property. As for residential property, the latest Case-Shiller numbers are out, and The BondDad describes them as “good news and bad news.” Good news, Vegas property values aren’t dropping any more. There is definitely bad news on the horizon, however, as Fannie Mae is reporting a rise in delinquencies. One last general interest item: Scientific American on whether older homes can be made “green” and whether the effort is worthwhile.

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