by Bridget Magnus — published on February 26th, 2010
Happy Friday! I’m glad you could join me for Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. Are you planning on touring, making an offer, or listing a home in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend? This is what you need to be aware of first!
Summary: Available units remain just under 11,000 at 10887. Contingent and pending units rose slightly to roughly 14,600, but the real question is how many of the 9800+ short sales in that number will ever close? The number of short sales that actually close has been inching up, but it will still be a long time before we work through currently contingent properties. Our rental market is still going strong, with available units continuing to decline. It’s a great time to be an investor with cash and plenty of patience in Las Vegas.
Other Information: There’s a lot going on in the housing market nationally, so please bear with me on these rather economics heavy items. Rental prices suggest that housing prices are a little high, but still closer to the bottom than the top nationally (this probably does not apply locally). The same author points out that the number of available rental units has surged, depressing rental prices (locally we have a divergence between available apartments and available rental homes/condos). The Case-Shiller index shows “mixed” results, which is no surprise to me. While sales of existing homes is brisk due to artificially low prices driven by the foreclosure market, the sale of new homes is hitting record lows. The CEO of Freddie Mac does expect a new wave of foreclosures, but President Obama wants to prevent that by requiring HAMP review before foreclosing — an already overwhelmed system. This of course will only be helpful if principal cramdown is on the table as a modification. The Review-Journal told us what my readers already know: that investors with cash are the driving force in our market right now. Mortgage rates are inching up, but I am having a hard time panicking over rates at 5.05%.
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by Bridget Magnus — published on February 21st, 2010
This morning, the Las Vegas Review Journal was kind enough to point out that prices of sold homes in every Vegas area Zip code declined in 2009. Some areas only declined 10-11%, while others saw drops of 57-60%. On average, prices dropped 23%. Be sure to click on the map insert for a detailed view of every Zip code. One thing worth noting is that “ZIP code 89146, south of Charleston Boulevard between Rainbow and Decatur boulevards, was the only area with positive appreciation (3 percent) in 2008. The median price dropped 57 percent last year to $110,000.”
However, Larry Murphy, President of the company that provided the data, sees some signs for optimism. First, there are positive technical indicators if you were to put prices on a chart. Second, new homes simply can’t be built for what existing homes sell for in Vegas right now — if your home burned to the ground, you would be better off financially buying a new place and bulldozing the old place than trying to rebuild! And finally, there is tremendous opportunity for investors to purchase property and having positive “cash flow” — bringing in more money in rent than the property costs to maintain. While Mr. Murphy does think prices will stay near current levels for the rest of the year, he sees our market as “undervalued.”
by Bridget Magnus — published on February 19th, 2010
It’s time for Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system, which now finally supports access by Macintosh users. Touring, making an offer, or listing a home in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend? Read this first!
Summary: Below, I am including year-over-year figures to show just how far our local real estate market has come. We’re not out of the woods yet, but it is better than it was! Available units are steady at 10902, still just under 11,000. Distressed sales are fairly steady, but down sharply year over year. Contingent and pending units continue to trend upwards; will they break through 15,000 in a few weeks, or will they stay steady around 14,000? Actual sold units seem to be settling in to a “new normal” of roughly 5oo per week. It doesn’t take a lot of math to see that we will be working through those 14,000 contingent units for some time, and many will never close — particularly short sales. The number of rentals available continues to decline and median rent per square foot is edging up, which is great news for investors.
Other Information: More distressed sales are expected in the next few years — Standard and Poor thinks it will take almost 3 years to clear “shadow” inventory — but can banks prove they actually hold the mortgage? At least short sales are (slowly) starting to move. Many homeowners have become pessimistic, and some Baby Boomers have decided to just stay put until property values rise again (assuming unforeseen circumstances do not force a move). The President is in town today, where he plans to unveil yet another housing help initiative to the tune of $1.5 billion in TARP funds. (and n all likelihood say nice things about Harry Reid). And just for fun, top 10 versions of “Viva Las Vegas.”
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by Bridget Magnus — published on February 17th, 2010
President Obama is scheduled to arrive in Vegas tomorrow night. It is unclear whether he plans to meet with local officials, or apologize for his most recent round of Vegas-bashing. It’s probably a good bet he’ll say what a swell guy Senator Reid is. I wonder if anyone is taking odds on that.
Since the President is showing up in the foreclosure capital of America, I would like to hear what he’s got to really say about the fact that mortgage delinquencies are at an all time high. With Nevada’s unemployment rate higher than the national average, what would he like to say about job creation? Because let’s face it, there is no permanent solution to the mortgage and housing problem until people have reliable jobs.
Update: Mr. Goodman has indicated that he will accept an apology from Mr. Obama, as long as it includes buying him a martini. Mr. President, Mr. Mayor takes Bombay Sapphire.
by Bridget Magnus — published on February 12th, 2010
Happy Lincoln’s Birthday and welcome to Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. Here’s what you and your Realtor need to know before touring, making an offer, or listing a home in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend.
Summary: Available units dropped ever so slightly to 10927. Prices of available units are in a tight range not really reflected by the week-to-week change. I am concerned by the jump in available condos under $50,000, but many of these are just price drops from the $50,000-$100,000 range, and the median price is only down by $100. Pending and contingent sales rose over 14,000 again; it seems likely that this number will remain in a tight range just like the number of available units. It is worth noticing that over 9500 of those units are short sales and many are at risk of foreclosing before closing! More short sales are closing as a percentage of total closings, but it will still take well over a year to clear out the current contingent short sales alone, let alone any currently available short sales. Thanks to a surge in signed leases, the number of available rentals has dropped below 5000.
Other Information: The Review-Journal points out that January sales were up 17% year over year, and that 21% of existing homes sold were short sales. Unfortunately, that doesn’t make a dent in available short sales. Zillow does think we are putting in a bottom for prices this year after a further “correction,” but I think that’s only with the cooperation of the banks and the appraisers! After all, even though foreclosures were down in January month over month, they were still up year over year and a “surge” is expected. Average monthly apartment rent has declined to $766 due to a higher vacancy rate, but rental houses are still moving fast at a median rent of $1095. Those of you who are new to the area should be aware that we are in the process of rolling out Real ID compliant drivers licenses; this article tells you what you need to know and what you need to bring with you to the DMV. I wonder how many women will have a hard time producing a marriage certificate.
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by Bridget Magnus — published on February 8th, 2010
Today we have more information on the bridge being built parallel to the Hoover Dam. It’s a 1900 foot span, 900 ft above the river. Although you’ll be able to see the bridge from the Dam, only pedestrians will be able to see the Dam from the bridge. Also, traffic patterns to will be different once the bridge opens, so be alert to changes if you’ve traveled this way before.
by Bridget Magnus — published on February 6th, 2010
If you are excited to read that headline, you aren’t going to like what follows.
For the rest of you, let me back up and briefly explain what “hard money” is all about. In short, hard money is a loan it would be “hard” to get anyplace else. According to eHow, “A hard money lender is a person or institution that offers loans, usually for real estate, with low credit restrictions but high rates and fees. Hard money lenders are often considered borrowers of last resort for those who are facing foreclosures or needing loans under abnormal conditions. Due to the high prices associated with hard money lenders, they are generally not a borrower’s first choice.” Wikipedia has much more on the topic.
The Las Vegas Review Journal reports that hard money lenders are in trouble here in Nevada. They’ve been stung so hard by foreclosures that they in essence want ways around state law and state regulations. Specifically, they want the right to manage real estate without either a real estate license and the additional real estate management permit required by law (NRS 118A), and they want to over-ride a privacy law prohibiting investors from having the contact information of other investors in a given project.
While I think it is probably a good idea for investors in one project to be able to communicate with one another, I think it would be a bad idea to let these investors (particularly out-of-state investors) manage property without a license. A good property manager not only knows the law and collects the rent, she or her staff is available to handle emergencies (NRS 118A.260), her actions prevent damage or degradation of the property, and in many cases she can even add value to a property through practices that maintain a high occupancy rate. This is good both for tenants and the investors. It’s even good for the neighbors.
Sure, it will cost some money to do the job right and follow the laws that were enacted to protect all Nevadans. That’s the cost of doing business.
by Bridget Magnus — published on February 5th, 2010
I’m so glad you stopped by for Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. Make no mistake, this is what you and your Realtor need to know before touring, making an offer, or listing a home in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend.
Summary: Available listings are rock-steady at 11025, although the percentage of short sales is slightly up. Contingent and pending sales are up slightly too. Closings are returning to a level we saw in most of 2009. Prices appear to be fairly solid — a trend I hope continues.
Other Information: The fact that our local number of listings is stable is even better when you consider that nationwide, the number of listings grew in January. Nationwide, we are also experiencing a decline in the percentage of families that own a home and a mortgage delinquency rate that has reached 10%. Locally, we have a rising rate of short sales (still not getting them approved fast enough, but it’s progress), declining apartment rent prices (rental homes and condos have pretty much remained stable since I’ve been tracking the data), and a loss of 15,000 jobs. Just for fun, here’s a look at the CityCenter project.
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by Bridget Magnus — published on February 3rd, 2010
When I have new clients come from out-of-town, one of the things they always ask about is the schools. What are the “best” school districts? Are any of them in financial trouble?
As a matter of state law, Nevada’s school districts are organized by county. There’s only one school district for each of our 17 counties. So there isn’t a Henderson school district, a North Las Vegas school district, a Paradise or Winchester or Sunrise Manor school district — it’s all just part of Clark County School District from Primm to Blue Diamond to Mount Charleston. This means that small towns and the rural areas around them don’t have to worry about coming up with the money for their own school districts, and it eliminates some of the problems of “poor” and “rich” schools. It also means that CCSD is the 5th largest school district in the nation, with all the benefits and problems of being a large school district.
Many people still ask what the best schools are. Unfortunately, I can’t answer that question. What is a good school? Every family has a different answer: some want strong academics, others want a variety of electives and extra-curriculars, some want a high graduation rate (which sadly we do not have), others want a top-notch athletic program. Even if I could read minds and pair families with the “perfect” school, there is the risk that the district will re-draw the attendance boundaries next year. I always encourage parents to do their own research both at the CCSD site and at sites like GreatSchools or SchooGo.com.
One thing CCSD does have is some very well regarded magnet schools. Any student can apply (this year’s deadline is February 8), and admissions are competitive. Three of our magnet high schools are US News and World Report Silver Medalists, and 2 more are Bronze Medalists. Application deadline this year is February 8.