Archive for December, 2009

Lousy Decade for Home Prices

We’ve got Case-Shiller figures for October, including the chart in this post. In short, prices were “flat but stable.” For the entire decade, however, there was no rise in property values once inflation was taken into consideration.

I do not have an intimate familiarity with how Professors Case and Shiller get these numbers, but I suspect that there is no accounting for the lower prices and worse condition of distressed properties. Theoretically, I should be seeing prices much lower than they actually are — and while I do see super-cheap properties, I see solid pricing in the mid range.

Please remember, in the Las Vegas Valley properties priced under about $60,000 should be considered cash only due to difficulties getting financed. It’s an opportunity for investors with lots of cash and even more patience, but not an opportunity for first time buyers who are thinking they can buy a place for the same monthly outlay as a crappy apartment. Between downpayment issues, appraisal issues, and repair issues, mortgaging such properties almost never works out. Seriously, save the downpayment for the pricier place, preferably without involving the FHA.

Saturday Figures for 12/26/2009

Welcome to a special edition Friday Saturday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. It’s what you and your Realtor should know before touring, making offers, or listing property in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend!

Summary: The number of available listings edged over 11,000 again, which seems to be a stable level for the time being. Short sales continue to rise, and despite Federal encouragement it is unknown whether these properties will be sold or foreclosed upon. The jump in available properties under $100,000 is of concern, but probably just an attempt to get multiple offers before the year end. Contingent and pending sales finally dropped below 14,000; even though closing sales were light due to the holidays, few properties went into escrow for the same reason. Next week we will be able to close out 2009. Although another light week would not be unexpected, institutional sellers such as banks will want to get these homes closed and off the books.

Other Information: The foreclosure crisis is far from over with serious delinquencies up 20%. In fact, the rate of home ownership is predicted to decline. At least one economist is predicting that interest rates on mortgages will rise in 2010 to about 6% — a reason for people to consider getting their mortgage applications together now. Sales of existing homes are up both locally and nationally, particularly as compared to sales of new homes. Our local economy isn’t out of the woods yet, however. Taxable sales in Nevada plunged 17.8% year over year in October.

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Christmas will be over soon

For those of you who have “live” Christmas trees, please be thinking about proper disposal of them after the holidays are over. One great option is “recycling” of trees. Starting this Saturday and running through January 15, you can drop your tree off for recycling at the Springs Preserve and 22 other locations across the valley. The trees will be turned into compost rather than allowed to rot in a landfill.

Christmas is Friday, so Friday Figures will be run on a special “holiday” schedule this week.

Friday Figures for 12/18/2009

Twas the Friday before Christmas, and all through the Las Vegas Valley, Realtors, buyers, and sellers needed the information in today’s Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. Read this before touring, making offers, or listing property in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend!

Summary: Available properties dropped just below 11,000 again! For perspective, 6 months ago we had just over 15,000 units. the price spread between bank owned and short sale homes seems to be shrinking; while short sales are usually in better condition than foreclosures, they take much more time to close. Whether this is a worthwhile trade-off is a decision each buyer should make for him/herself. Contingent and pending sales are down, but still over 14,000. The backlog of contingent short sales, however, continues to get bigger. Closings remain strong. Expect next week to be a little light on closings as most title offices will close for the holidays. On the other hand, when the title offices and mortgage brokers are open, expect them to be very busy trying to get things closed up before the end of the year!

Other Information: Nevada is swearing more foreclosure mediators, but we have yet to see if the program is really working. After all, the federal Make Home Affordable loan modification program is only seeing success rates of about 4%. A bit of good news is that Citi, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac are all declaring a temporary halt on foreclosures for the holidays. Of course, this only adds to the estimated 1.7 million homes in “foreclosure backlog,” homes that are considered at risk of being foreclosed upon in the near future. More good news is that 36 states, including Nevada, have decreasing unemployment rates. That probably has something to do with why our new home sales are rising. Next Friday is Christmas, so Friday Figures may be published off schedule.

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Clean, Clear Water

A few years ago, someone drove out here to visit me. Since she was planning on driving anyway, I gave her a little advice. I said “Vegas water is not exactly tasty stuff. And the big hotels will gladly charge you for bottled water. If you are smart, you’ll pull off the highway before you make it all the way to the Strip and buy yourself a cheap flat of water at a grocery store. If you don’t drink it while you’re here, you can always drink it on the way back home.”

Now an official study has declared what many people already knew: even though Vegas water meets Federal safety standards, it’s some of the worst municipal drinking water available in a major city. Vegas water comes from two main sources: underground springs and Lake Mead.

There are a lot of things that you can do to improve your water quality in Vegas without springing for bottled water. First, there’s water softeners. Most households in Vegas already have the “loop” to install one in the garage, if not a pre-installed unit. They work by a chemical reaction where sodium or potassium pulls calcium and magnesium out of the water. The salty “brine” left behind is then flushed as waste water. A common misconception is that you end up drinking salty water, but it turns out that the water softener only adds a very small amount of sodium, far less than you get from typical processed foods.

Many househholds also have filtration systems for their drinking water. These systems can be as simple as a filtering pitcher — or it’s larger undersink filtration cousins — or as complicated as a reverse osmosis system. There are a lot of different kinds of filter systems, each with its own benefits, drawbacks, and costs. In addition to the installation cost, don’t forget to consider the ongoing cost of filter materials. A guide like this one can help you pick the right sort of system before you start talking to salesmen (whose job is to convince you that his system is best!). It is worth noting that most refrigerators with icemakers have filters built into them. It is my personal experience that these filters usually need to be replaced every 6-9 months.

Remember that these filter systems are also very likely to remove chlorine from water. While this will make it taste better, it also means there is nothing left to kill germs in it anymore. So be sure to drink up or stick it in the fridge soon after filtering.

Of course, if you have time and patience, it is possible to cheaply purify your own water at home. This is a skill which will also serve if you are someplace where the water system has been compromised or if you are camping.

To get the most detailed information possible about Vegas’s water, be sure to check out the information available from the Southern Nevada Water Authority.

Friday Figures for 12/11/2009

It’s Friday again, and time for Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. Read this before touring, making offers, or listing property in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend!

Summary: Available listings held steady, coming in at 11,005. Price of available units was also steady. Supply of available bank owned homes continues to drop, while more short sales are available — let’s hope those short sales close and prevent foreclosures. The drop in inventory levels for both sub-$100k and million dollar plus homes is encouraging. Contingent and pending listings edged up slightly, remaining over 14,000. I am continuing to monitor the rental market for potential weakness, but rents remain steady.

Other Information: It looks like permanent loan modifications are very rare indeed; depending on the program, 2%-4% of trial modifications have resulted in permanently lower payments. This bodes ill for the long term recovery of the overall housing market.

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Title and Escrow

Once a buyer and seller agree on the terms of selling real estate, the “escrow period” begins. Usually a deposit is placed with a title company. While the buyer gets things like inspections and HOA documents to look over, the mortgage people start working on their paperwork, and a mysterious “escrow officer” begins a very important set of jobs.

Even though it could be handled separately, in Nevada the title company and the escrow company are usually the same place and one set of people does both tasks.

As the “escrow” staff, they act as a third party between the buyer and seller to make sure that all the money is impartially accounted for. They make sure that all the documents are in order, that everybody’s name is spelled right, that the numbers add up correctly. They arrange to have a notary on hand for signing documents. They make sure that everybody signed and initialed in all the right places. Once everybody has signed and the mortgage money has come in, they make sure the seller is paid and the new deed recorded at the county offices.

As the “title” staff, they have the very important job of making sure that the seller gives “clear” title to the buyer. Clear title means that the new owner really owns it, with no mysterious debts from the past attached to the property. In short, it means the new owner can sell the property. The title officer checks to see who owns the property, who used to own it, whether there are any restrictions on how the property can be used, what liens may be against it, if there is an outstanding mortgage and to what bank, whether there are fees owed to the homeowners association, whether the taxes are up to date, and a dozen other details.

They stand behind their findings with something called “title insurance.” The buyer and seller will each have their own title insurance policy. Because in some ways the buyer’s policy protects the buyer’s mortgage company, it is sometimes called the “lender’s” policy. Title insurance protects against a variety of problems from bad and forged deeds to property tax issues. However, just like most other kinds of insurance, there is more than one level of protection. While exact policy details may vary, there are 2 basic kinds of policy: CLTA and ALTA. The ALTA policy in turn has two basic forms: residential and extended. ALTA does cost a bit more, but it covers a lot more too. As a REALTOR, I generally recommend ALTA coverage. However, if you have questions about exactly what coverage you need, it is a good idea to ask your local title/escrow officer.

Some of the details I have mentioned are specific to Nevada. For questions about how things work in your state, call a local REALTOR. To learn more about real estate in the Las Vegas Valley, be sure to check in with BridgetMagnus.com every Friday for Friday Figures.

Friday Figures for December 4, 2009

Welcome to Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. Touring, making offers, or listing property this weekend in the Las Vegas Valley? Read this first!

Summary: Available listings are just barely over 11,000, and demand continues to be strong. However, it is clear that only properties “priced right” are moving from available to contingent/pending. The number of Contingent and pending numbers continues to slide as properties sell. It is not yet known whether the new guidance on short sales from the Treasury Department will help break the logjam of 8900+ contingent short sales anytime soon. Sales remain strong, but there is a little weakness in the rental market. It remains to be seen whether this is a trend.

Other Information: Good news is that unemployment is starting to go down, and we are seeing fewer job losses. While it is painful to speak of this level of job losses as a relative good thing, it means we may sooner rather than later get to the point where the economy is creating jobs rather than losing them. This will eventually have a positive impact on both foreclosure rates and the number of future buyers.

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It all boils down to mortgages

Here’s a round-up of some interesting mortgage and financing stories that have crossed my desk:

This one by a local loan officer gives you a rather technical view of the impact on Las Vegas real estate from a particular kind of mortgage, the Option ARM. He’s an expert in this, so even if you find it tough reading, it’s worth your time.

This insightful commentary talks about predatory lending and mortgage modifications. In short, there are a number of reasons banks have not exactly been enthusiastic about getting Joe and Jane Average a lower payment!

FHA loans are now one of the most popular ways to get financed. But did you know that nationwide there are only 172 people who can give the final approval? What I take away from this is ask for a 45 day closing on FHA transactions, and think twice before buying a foreclosure with one! By the way, FHA is asking Congress for tougher standards, bigger downpayments, and bigger mortgage insurance fees. No word on whether they are asking for more staff.

One more thing, the Treasury Department did issue new guidelines on short sales this week. To learn more, check out my article on The Moderate Voice. There is a link to the actual rules near the end.

Be sure to join me on Friday for the latest Vegas real estate market data!