By now everyone has heard that existing home sales were up in October, which drove inventory down. Residential investment and the Case-Shiller are up too. Even sales of new homes are up.

Don’t get to thinking this is a trend.

The reason we had so many closings in October is that buyers were trying to get the deal completed before the first time homebuyer’s tax credit was supposed to have expired. Nobody knew when those contracts were signed that the credit would be continued and expanded. I don’t know how much impact that will have going forward, as most qualified first time buyers have already made their move, and one in 5 current homeowners can’t buy because they are underwater on their primary residence.

For a property to sell in October means there was most likely a signed contract in September, if not last August. It won’t be until mid December before we have accurate, national numbers for November property sales (I will continue to post local data every Friday).

So in short, we may still have a bubble problem in some areas of the country.