Both the good news and the bad news comes complete with pictures. I’ll start with the good news.

Even the Case-Shiller figures indicate that housing prices nationally are stabilizing. Vegas is the two lines at the bottom. Part of this is generally thought to be due to the tax credit for first time buyers, which will be expiring soon. Frankly, if you don’t already have at least a counter-offer in hand, don’t count on closing on time. Will that tax break be extended? Nobody knows.

The bad news is that Fannie Mae reports that serious mortgage delinquencies are up. In fact they are up sharply. Note the “hockey stick” part of the chart: since January of 2008, the rate of homeowners with Fannie Mae loans went from 1% — which was alarmingly high at the time — to over 4%. This tells me that distressed sales will dominate real estate for at least another couple of years.

Frankly, that bodes ill for price appreciation for the next 5 years. Those seeking a home that costs about the same as their rent will still be fine, and savvy investors will always be able to find a good deal, but this is the wrong time to be a speculator.