I’d like to share with you not raw data, but a few impressions about where the market is and where things are headed. This applies only to the Las Vegas market — I wouldn’t even apply it to Pahrump. Further, I expect this to be outdated within 3 months, and downright historical in 6 months.

It’s hard for many people to get financed. Interest rates are edging up, but still very good. That’s only if you qualify. Credit score under 620? Not a citizen? Just changed jobs? Work in an industry where there is a risk you might get laid off or even reduced hours? Paid partly in tips? Entrepreneur? First time buyer? Talk to the mortgage broker before you talk to a Realtor. In fact, do that before you start poking around the listings on Craigslist or Realtor.com.

Banks are drawing a line in the sand where price is concerned. I am seeing and hearing of short sales being derailed by banks insisting that a property appraised tens of thousands of dollars above the highest offer received, and refusing to take much less.  In some cases, this amounts to a 20% markup or more! They would rather take back the property than take a loss. If the bank does take it back, you can count on the listing price being at their appraisal price.

Everybody wants a bargain, particularly if it’s “nice”. There’s several thousand properties available for less than $100,000 right now, and thousands more available for between $100,000 and $150,000.  Sure, I see a few people interested in properties between $200,000 and $300,000, but they are the minority. Most people are looking in the bargain basement, hoping to find gems.

If it’s remotely desirable, expect multiple offers. In this one respect, it feels a lot like 2004. I routinely call listing agents before touring their listings with clients. I specifically ask if there is anything I should know, and if there are any offers. Often, this saves my client time. I find out that the an offer is accepted and they are waiting on signatures. Or they will tell me about some feature/problem that makes the home not right for my client. Yesterday, I talked to 4 different agents who had well over 5 offers on properties my clients were interested in seeing.

Sales prices will rise and listing prices will follow. In a multiple offer situation like above, the potential buyers are asked to submit their “highest and best” offers. Whatever name it takes, the result is a bidding war. We won’t know what these properties sell for until they close — 30-45 days from now. In short sales like I was talking about earlier, we won’t know the sales price for 2-4 months. Readers of Friday Figures will see the trend before anybody else.

Want to beat the trend? Call the number at the top of the page or hit the “Contact Me” link in the sidebar to talk about how I can solve your residential real estate problem. Nihongo wo hanasemasu. Je parle Français.

The other day, I read this Forbes article about how much more we can expect housing prices to fall.  Not too surprisingly, their list of 10 markets that should have the steepest drop — from here! — includes Las Vegas.

They state that the median house price here is roughly $181,700 and that we should expect an additional 25% drop. I have two problems with this. First, the median price of active listings is much lower than Forbes’s figures at $154,900 as of April 13, 2009. Further, my readers know that the median price of homes actually sold has actually been in the $130k range.

A 25% drop from what Forbes claims is the median list price would be $136,275. That’s pretty close to the median sales price we are actually seeing. Do they mean we drop further from here? Or is Forbes accidentally calling a bottom here? Only their columnist knows for certain.

Thank you for looking at the Friday Figures! This data is compiled from the GLVAR MLS system. It’s what you and your Realtor need to know before conducting residential real estate business this weekend.

Available listings for sale:  There are 13871 available single family homes, 4206 condominiums and townhomes. Of these, 58% are vacant. We’ve finally broken under 14,000 available houses. For comparison, we had over 16,500 houses and 4600 condos/townhomes this time last year, and 52% were vacant.

Distressed Properties: Of those listings, 6749 are noted as short sales and 5193 are bank-owned (a drop of nearly 500). That means 37% of inventory is short sales and 28% is bank owned, compared to 25% short sales and only 19% bank owned last year!

Contingent and Pending listings:  Properties in the process of being purchased are 8800 single family homes, 1667 condos and townhomes. These figures continue to rise. Last year we had almost 5200 houses and almost 700 condos/townhomes with pending sales. It’s worth pointing out that of our current pending/contingent sales, all but about 450 are distressed sales. It’s not an easy market for traditional sellers.

Single Family Home Prices: Of available listings, 250 under $50,000; 2070 between $50,000-$100,000; 5899 between $100,000-$200,000 (a huge drop!); 4024 between $200,000-$500,000; 1032 between $500,000-$1,000,000; and 762 over $1,000,000. This marks the third straight week of dropping inventory at all price levels. Last year there were over 1100 homes over $1,000,000 available; whether the price on these homes dropped or whether the market got better for selling them is left to the reader’s speculation.

Condo and Townhome Prices: 498 under $50,000; 1495 between $50,000-$100,000; 1195 between $100,000-$200,000; 659 between $200,000-$500,000; 268 between $500,000-$1,000,000; and 166 over $1,000,000. Every category except under $50,000 is down. 

Recently sold: 750 properties have closed in the last week, springing back from last week’s reduced level. 3601 have closed in the last 30 days — roughly double last year’s levels — and 10663 have closed since the first of the year. This time last year we had closed about 6400 year to date. Of the properties closed in the last week, an unbelievable 90 properties were on the market less than a week; 7 were on the market over a year; 57 were on the market more than 6 months; median dropped to 496 days. 103 properties sold for $50,000 or less, 13  sold for more than $500,000. Median sales price rose to $130,000 and median list price was close to unchanged at  $135,000.  While it is still important to research local market values before making a purchase offer, most homes are still selling for near their asking price.

Rentals: 4807 homes, townhomes, and condos were available for rent in the Valley according to the MLS system. Last year, less than 3900 units were available for lease. There are 541 contingent leases and 1733 leases signed in the last 30 days. Hopefully some of the recent sales are being turned into rental properties, something essential to a healthy housing market.

Other information: There are 13764 active Realtors in GLVAR today. Choose one who knows their stuff. Just because she’s a neighbor or because you know his dad isn’t a good enough reason to let them help you with the most important purchase or sale you can make.

To learn more, or to solve your residential real estate problem in Vegas, please click the “Contact Me!” link in the sidebar, or just call the number at the top of the page. Friday Figures is published by Bridget Magnus on BridgetMagnus.com and is her property, even though any GLVAR Realtor can access this data.  

Now we have an outline of the President’s high speed rail plans. This is a clarification of the money set aside for rail in the recent stimulus bill.  High speed rail is used in Europe and Asia, and there is no reason we can’t learn a lot from what they did to improve upon it. 

You may recall that the Governors of both Nevada and California were actively encouraging a high speed rail link between Vegas and Los Angeles. Unfortunately, that link just isn’t on the map at this time. 

Las Vegas has a long history when it comes to railroads. It was the major stop between Salt Lake City and Los Angeles at one time. Our economy was nearly ruined when the hub was moved after a railway workers strike. In this age of air travel and interstate highways, the lack of this rail link won’t have that sort of impact, but it would have gotten hundreds of cars off I-15 and been a good thing for both cities. Let’s hope this is just “phase one” of the rail map.

It’s time for Friday Figures! All data from the GLVAR MLS system. Here’s what you and your Realtor need to know before touring, making a purchase offer, or listing residential property in Las Vegas this weekend.

Available listings for sale:  There are 14420 available single family homes, 4309 condominiums and townhomes. Substantially down! Total available listings are finally under 19,000.

Distressed Properties: Of those listings, 6818 are noted as short sales and 5625 are bank-owned. It’s no surprise that both these numbers are down as well.

Contingent and Pending listings:  Properties in the process of being purchased are 8457 single family homes, 1616 condos and townhomes. We now have over 10,000 pending and contingent. This is in line with the drop of available listings. Of those, 3283 are short sale and 5818 are bank-owned. The huge increase of pendings over the last few weeks means that we will have plenty of closed sales over the next 30-60 days. If this action continues, prices may well stabilize and even rise.

Single Family Home Prices: Of available listings, 267 under $50,000; 2112 between $50,000-$100,000; 6215 between $100,000-$200,000; 4174 between $200,000-$500,000; 1061 between $500,000-$1,000,000; and 764 over $1,000,000. A second week of dropping inventory at all levels tends to indicate that buyers are active in every price range.

Condo and Townhome Prices: 489 under $50,000; 1551 between $50,000-$100,000; 1235 between $100,000-$200,000; 680 between $200,000-$500,000; 272 between $500,000-$1,000,000; and 168 over $1,000,000. It’s still hard to sell a $1M+ condo, but everything else appears to be moving. 

Recently sold: Only 593 properties have closed in the last week, the first time it’s been under 600 in quite a while. Nevertheless, there were 3554 in the last 30 days, and 9841 have closed since the first of the year. Of the properties closed in the last week, 68 properties were on the market less than a week; 51 were on the market more than 6 months; median was down to 49 days. 73 properties sold for $50,000 or less while only 9 sold for more than $500,000 (3 were over $1,000,000). Median sales price dropped sharply to $127,000 and median list price dropped to $134,900. Only time will tell whether this trend continues; it could merely be a sign of working through our “bargain basement” inventory. Of properties closed in the last 30 days, only 249 were short sales (median sales and median list price of $165,000);  2823 were bank-owned (median list price $124,900); 463 standard, non-distressed sales (median sales price $254,182, median list price $219,000).

Rentals: 4844 homes, townhomes, and condos were available for rent in the Valley according to the MLS system. that’s a substantial increase! There are 533contingent leases (up 60) and 1726 leases signed in the last 30 days (down 59). Hopefully some of the recent sales are being turned into rental properties, something essential to a healthy housing market.

Other information: MSNBC brings us advice on what to do if you are turned down for a mortgage; our local homelessness problem is on the rise, so be on the lookout for squatters; prices are still dropping, even while the number of sales is increasing. 

For more information, or assistance buying/selling real estate, please click the “Contact Me!” link in the sidebar, or just call the number at the top of the page. This presentation was published by Bridget Magnus on BridgetMagnus.com and is her property, although the underlying data is available to any GLVAR Realtor. I hope you have a great weekend!

First, a big Welcome Home! to almost 300 airmen of Nellis Air Force Base, returning from overseas missions. 

Another welcome sign, Mojave Max has emerged from his hibernation at the Desert Tortoise Conservation Center. That makes it “officially spring” for some Las Vegans. 

If you live in Vegas, your mortgage is with Chase, and you are having trouble making payments, please be aware of their Nevada Homeownership Center near N Rainbow and 215. They would rather help you out than own yet more houses.

Maybe things are slower than usual here in Vegas, but City Center is still under construction, with parts set to open later this year. 

It seems that in many parts of the country, apartment vacancy rates are way up! While it is true that when people lose their jobs, they often lose their means for paying for housing, I wonder where all those residents have gone. Mom and Dad’s place? Bunking with friends? I wonder what will happen when summer “leasing season” arrives.

Last item: Realtors, their clients, and title officers need to be on the lookout for mortgage fraud. Read your closing statements. Do your best to understand them. Here’s a place to start. Ask for explanations where you do not understand. If it’s not on the closing statement, it isn’t supposed to happen. 

I’ll see you again for Friday Figures!

Thanks for dropping by to see Friday Figures. This information is gathered from the GLVAR MLS system. This is the first Friday of the month, so I will add month-over-month comparisons where relevant. This is data you and your Realtor need to know before touring, making a purchase offer, or listing residential property this weekend.

Available listings for sale:  There are 15044 available single family homes, 4420 condominiums and townhomes. Both numbers are down substantially from last week. At the beginning of March we had 15852 available single family homes and 4542 condominiums and townhomes. The number of vacant listings is also down, to 11840 compared to 12686.

Distressed Properties: Of those listings, 6841 are noted as short sales (a drop of over 90) and 6207 are bank-owned (a drop of over 300).  On the first Friday of March, we had 6863 short sales and 6867 bank owned properties.

Contingent and Pending listings:  Properties in the process of being purchased are 7898 single family homes, 1505 condos and townhomes. That pushes the total over 9400! Of those, 3041 are short sale and 5457 are bank-owned. Clearly distressed properties are continuing to move our market.  At the beginning of March, we had only 6795 single family homes and 1253 condos/townhomes in pending/contingent status.

Single Family Home Prices: Of available listings, 304 under $50,000 (the first drop in recent memory); 2204 between $50,000-$100,000; 6513 between $100,000-$200,000; 4369 between $200,000-$500,000; 1075 between $500,000-$1,000,000; and 768 over $1,000,000. Declines in every single price category! The early March figures are  288 under $50,000; 2085 between $50,000-$100,000; 6857 between $100,000-$200,000; 4828 between $200,000-$500,000; 1167 between $500,000-$1,000,000; and 798 over $1,000,000. The month-over-month trend is still towards more low-priced properties. 

Condo and Townhome Prices: 498 under $50,000; 1582 between $50,000-$100,000; 1262 between $100,000-$200,000; 699 between $200,000-$500,000; 279 between $500,000-$1,000,000; and 167 over $1,000,000. After more or less constantly increasing for over a year, we finally have decreases in the number of condos available for under $100,000. The only segment that increased was the over $1,000,000 range. Last month we had 431 under $50,000; 1601 between $50,000-$100,000; 1357 between $100,000-$200,000; 759 between $200,000-$500,000; 286 between $500,000-$1,000,000; and 167 over $1,000,000. The price data this week is not enough to call a bottom, particularly when we still see news stories about record price drops, but it’s a good sign.

Recently sold: An incredible 933 properties have closed in the last week, propelled by the end-of-month crush. There were 3503 in the last 30 days, and 9133 have closed since the first of the year. At the beginning of March, there were 2907 closes in the prior 30 days.  Of the properties closed in the last week, 15 accepted offers within a day of listing, 100 properties were on the market less than a week with a wide range of prices; 84 were on the market more than 6 months; median was 53 days. 104 properties sold for $50,000 or less while only 15 sold for more than $500,000. Median sales price remained stable at $135,000 and median list price was unchanged at $139,900. At the beginning of March, Median sales price was $125,000 while median list price was $149,000, including 71 which sold for $50,000 or less. It is a relief to see signs that we are working through the bargain-basement inventory.

Rentals: 4763 homes, townhomes, and condos were available for rent in the Valley (an increase) according to the MLS system. There are 473 contingent leases (down substantially) and 1785 leases signed in the last 30 days (a decrease). For the record, 1908 of our available for-sale listings and 497 contingent/pending listings are occupied by tenants; those without written leases are at risk of losing their right to occupy the property.

Other information:  Just a little tidbit, 7 Housing Tax Laws that can save you money. 

I solve residential real estate problems for buyers and sellers. For more information, please click the “Contact Me!” link in the sidebar, or just call the number at the top of the page. While this data is available to any Realtor willing to look it up, this presentation was published by Bridget Magnus on BridgetMagnus.com and is her property. Make it a great weekend!

The New York Times ran an interesting piece yesterday on how banks are in some cases refusing to take back some properties where the mortgage is in default! 

City officials and housing advocates… in cities as varied as Buffalo, Kansas City, Mo., and Jacksonville, Fla., say they are seeing an unsettling development: Banks are quietly declining to take possession of properties at the end of the foreclosure process, most often because the cost of the ordeal — from legal fees to maintenance — exceeds the diminishing value of the real estate.

The so-called bank walkaways rarely mean relief for the property owners, caught unaware months after the fact, and often mean additional financial burdens and bureaucratic headaches. Technically, they still owe on the mortgage, but as a practicality, rarely would a mortgage holder receive any more payments on the loan. The way mortgages are bundled and resold, it can be enormously time-consuming just trying to determine what company holds the loan on a property thought to be in foreclosure.

Admittedly, I have not seen this phenomenon locally.

It’s worth noting that the “varied” cities named are all much older than Las Vegas (founded in 1905, incorporated in 1911, things didn’t really get rolling until Hoover Dam began construction). All but a few hundred all of our houses for sale were built in the last 50 years. Over 3/4 were built in the last 20 years, and more than half of them were built in the last 10 years using relatively modern building techniques. The age of available housing is very different in cities like Buffalo or Jacksonville, and that impacts the condition of that housing.

Another wrinkle here is that Vegas has a lot of HOAs — Home Owner Associations — and in Nevada they have the legal right to foreclose on property when the dues and assessments are not paid. They can even foreclose when fines for things like failing to mow the lawn aren’t paid. I haven’t seen any houses for sale by HOA yet, but I have seen sales held up by an HOA starting the foreclosure process. 

It’s not a sale until Close of Escrow, and the foreclosure isn’t done until the deed is recorded in the bank’s name.