On one hand, Tyler Cowen of Marginal Revolution thinks the mortgage mess isn’t really that bad. On the other hand, Dave Johnson of Seeing the Forest thinks it’s even worse.

It is, however, worth noting that Mr. Cowen hedges his bets with a link to a British article suggesting that we may be staring down the possibility of a full-blown worse than 1929 style economic meltdown. I’ll stick with my theory that reality is somewhere between the extreme predictions.

Sad but true, we are in the midst of record foreclosure rates. And also sad but true, there are charlatans who would gladly take advantage of this family tragedy for personal gain. And that brings me to TheStreet.com’s warning about mortgage rescue scams:

Foreclosure-rescue scams usually revolve around heavily promoted deals supposedly designed to save the homes of people who have fallen behind on their mortgage payments and are facing foreclosure. The scam artists proclaim to “save your home” or “pay your mortgage,” but in reality they only generate a quick profit for themselves while possibly stripping away the value of the home with no benefit to the owner.

“Scam artists can evict a family from their own home and then sell it on the open market before the homeowner has any idea of what is going on,” says Gail Cunningham, spokesperson for the National Foundation for Credit Counseling.

Make no mistake, there are legitimate services that will help you as well, and they too are growing. The most helpful tip they have for selecting a service is that scammers often ask for money up front, while legit services usually do not. The National Foundation for Credit Counseling adds this list of red flags:

The NFCC advises homeowners fearing foreclosure to proceed with extreme caution if an individual or company:

• Calls itself a “mortgage consultant” or “foreclosure service.”
• Contacts people whose homes are listed for foreclosure, including anyone who uses flyers or solicits for business door-to-door, by phone or email.
• Encourages you to lease your home so you can buy it back over time.
• Collects a fee before providing any services to you.
• Instructs you to cease all contact with your lender, credit or housing counselors, lawyer or other legitimate experts.
• Tells you to make your mortgage payments directly to him or his company (not the lender).
• Requires that you transfer your property deed or title to him or his company.
• Makes a promise that seems too good to be true, for example, instant cash with “no strings attached.”
• Tells you that as part of the deal you will need to move out of your house for some period of time for remodeling or other reasons.
• Offers to buy your house for cash at a fixed price that is not set by the housing market at the time of sale.

You can also check out this clip by Freddie Mac. My advice? Have an observer come with you to meet with such companies: a lawyer; your adult child; a trusted friend. They are less apt to be swayed by emotion-manipulating pitches and listen to the unvarnished facts. If they say your observer can’t stay — they may falsely claim it’s for privacy reasons — consider that the biggest red flag of all.

Yikes!  Yesterday’s Case-Shiller index posted a record drop in house prices.  It was the 10th straight month of falling prices.  The experts do not expect improvement soon because “Prices will probably remain under pressure as the jump in foreclosures puts even more homes on the market just as stricter lending rules make it harder for buyers to find financing.”  Every metro area surveyed was down month-over-month, even if a few were still up year-over year.  Here’s the data in chart form.

As a little bonus, check out this two-part item on the current housing mess from EconoSpeak:  one;  two.

Despite this rather dismal news, I am optimistic that on a local basis we are closer to the end than the beginning.  We are starting to work through inventory.  There is evidence that listing prices are becoming more realistic (even when it means a short sale).  Builders only have so much inventory:  they are not breaking ground on anything not already sold;  and since the end of the year is next week, the incentive to get property off the books for tax purposes is going away.  And topping all this off is the news that Nevada is once more the fastest growing state, with 2.56 million residents and a growth rate of 2.9%.  Since “demographic experts think the county’s population surged past the 2 million mark sometime in the past few months,”  that means almost 80% of the state’s population lives here in the Las Vegas Valley.  Those 2 million people and all the newcomers need places to live.

A “short sale” is when a property owner is forced to sell for less than the mortgage amount. The mortgage holder usually has to approve the sale, because they usually don’t get all the money they are owed. The mortgage company usually has to “forgive” this debt and write it off. Until this week, that forgiven debt was considered “income” by the IRS! Talk about adding insult to injury: the property has negative equity; the property owner can’t afford to just hold the property until that situation changes; the mortgage company has to walk away with a loss; and the taxman wants his cut!

Congress fixed that on Monday. Now families that dodged the foreclosure bullet will not have to pay a huge tax bill with money they clearly didn’t have in the first place. Tim Iocono has the details and a bit of analysis in a post called “A Nice Stocking-Stuffer from Congress“.

The Springs Preserve wants to help residents of the Las Vegas Valley recycle their Christmas trees.  There are 15 locations set up throughout the valley, and they will be accepting trees through January 15.

Earlier this week, the Clark County commissioners voted to limit the number of garage sales a family can have to four every six months. The vote on the issue was unanimous, with one commissioner going on record as saying “Lots of residents have turned these garage sales into personal businesses.”

Every morning I get a depressing opportunity in my email.

It’s a new foreclosure list. On one hand, I could be calling all these people, trying to get the house sold before the bank takes it. On the other hand, one way or another these people are losing their home.

By now you probably have heard the good-news/bad-news that November’s foreclosures were down from October’s foreclosures by 10%. Unfortunately, those foreclosures are still up 68% over last year.

Are we near the end? Maybe. Are we closer to the end than the beginning? Almost certainly. A little common sense is starting to return to the lending industry, propelled by the Fed itself. They have proposed “sweeping” consumer protections which will, in essence, make it harder to get a mortgage for people who do not meet the traditional criteria: good credit; big downpayment; verified income and employment — a problem for entrepreneurs. As Floyd Norris points out, these new rules will not do anything whatsoever to fix the current problem, but it may help prevent it from happening again. Assuming, of course, that the protections are not scrapped as “hopelessly old-fashioned” in a few decades.

The other day, I picked up a copy of the Las Vegas Relocation Guide. It has lots of information that is of value both to newcomers and to people who have been here for years. If you would like your own copy, they are published by the Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce each quarter. Here are some little tibdits:

You knew Las Vegas had fabulous world-class shows by top notch performers like Celine Dion and Wayne Brady, Wayne Newton and Carrot Top. You knew we had groups like Cirque de Soleil and Blue Man Group. But did you know we also have the Las Vegas Philharmonic Orchestra and the Nevada Ballet Theatre? We even have an Opera.

Maybe you’ve heard of the Elvis Museum and the Liberace Museum, but those are just 2 of the 39 museums listed in the area. Vegas has a children’s museum, a museum built around an ancient Anasazi village, another one at a turn-of-the-20th-century Mormon fort, a neon museum, a branch of the Guggenheim, and a reproduction of King Tut’s tomb.

We have over 125,000 hotel rooms (more coming soon, more jobs coming with them), over 197,000 slot machines, over 3700 conventions each year, over 315 weddings daily (so much for “Virginia is for lovers”) and over 96,000 new residents moving to Vegas every year.

In addition to now-traditional neighborhoods of single family houses, apartment complexes, and low-rise condominiums, Vegas is having a veritable renaissance of high-rise living! These modern developments often have shops, restaurants, work-out facilities, conference rooms, and other great amenities on site. As of yesterday, there were over 800 high-rise condos for sale (be sure to click the “Contact Me!” link on the left if you want more specific information on them or want to schedule a tour).

Everyone knows Las Vegas has it’s fair share of sun-seeking retirees, but did you know we have a Chinatown?

And of course no discussion of Vegas Living would be complete without mentioning that we are one of the great dining cities in the world. Name a top celebrity chef, and if he has a restaurant chances are he has one here. Last year’s “Top Chef” winner is a local boy, as is the runner-up from the previous year. That fellow at the next table that looks like Tom Collichio? Could be!

Oh yeah, I love it here. Won’t you be my neighbor?

Well, I say it’s free, and it is. Unless it makes you want to buy a new car.

Maybe it’s not worth a special trip, but if you happen to be on Sahara between Rainbow and Jones with a little time on your hands, go into the showroom at Desert VW. You will see a VW Eos — that’s the new convertible — that was in a wreck and rolled multiple times.

The driver walked away with minor injuries. He was so pleased with the not dying part of his experience that he bought a new one.

As a bonus, here’s The Movable Buffet’s Vegas Losers of 2007.

You’ve seen the disclaimers at the bottom of those mutual fund ads on the TV, right? The ones that say no single investment is for everyone and you should consult your financial adviser before sending money? Well, buying a house isn’t for everyone either.

If you are one of those people for whom this is not the right time to buy a house or condominium, this post is for you! The Consumerist has been kind enough to post Landlord-Tenant Law For Every State; here’s the law in Nevada. Here’s the law about housing discrimination in Nevada. If someday you are ready to buy a home — or you would like me to put you in touch with an agent who specializes in rental property — be sure to click the “Contact Me!” link at the side of this page.

This information originally posted on ShortWoman in this post.