Friday Figures for 3/12/2010

Thank you for reading Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. This is critical data for anyone touring, making an offer, or listing a home in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend.

Summary: Available listings dropped slightly to 10763, while prices remain stable and time on market dropped slightly. The early bird is clearly catching the worm when it comes to the “best” listings — median time on market for homes sold in the last 30 days was just over a month. We also have 14958 contingent and pending units! Will we break through 15,000 next week? Will some of the 9400+ contingent short sales get approval and eventually close? Only time will tell. As it stands, only about 700 short sales per month are closing, so it will be a long time to get through all of them!

Other Information: There’s a lot of real estate news out this week, and a lot of it has to do with short sales. Remember, that’s when the mortgage company will be “short” money at the end. A lot of the current buzz is about the Treasury Department “program encouraging owners and banks” to do a short sale that begins next month. It is important to remember that this is a program, not a law or a regulation! I seriously question how many lenders will actually participate, particularly those who hold second mortgages. Meanwhile, we have very conflicting signals about future foreclosures. Remember, a lot of those short sales will eventually turn into foreclosures if nothing is done. On one hand, foreclosure activity declined 2% in February. On the other hand, the Washington Post estimates that there are 5,000,000 to 7,000,000 foreclosures waiting to happen nationwide. One last item, our local unemployment rate has risen to 13.8%. Wow.

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Friday Figures for 3/5/2010

It’s time once again for Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. This is critical data for anyone touring, making an offer, or listing a home in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend.

Summary: Available listings are under the 11,000 mark at 10859, almost 200 less than at the beginning of last month, but the interesting part is that time on market is down quite a bit from last week. Median prices are unchanged, but that won’t last long if inventory and time on market are both decreasing. Interestingly enough, there has been a notable drop in the number of million dollar plus homes available. Contingent units edged up to 14,629, but my concerns over how many of those will actually close remain. We did have over 800 closings in the last week, a level we haven’t seen in months. All things considered, our current market conditions are slowly improving, and much better than it was 2 years ago in every way except price. However, continued improvement is all in the hands of the big mortgage players and banks: they alone will determine how many short sales succeed and how many foreclosed homes hit the market — and at what prices.

Other Information: It’s hard to talk about the housing situation without remembering that unemployment is still high at 9.7% and the economy is losing jobs — it’s hard to pay the mortgage without a paycheck. Here’s an interesting item on housing prices and job creation. At least a jobs bill has been passed by the House, even if it’s too small to count for much by some estimates. There is pressure to break up “too big to fail” banks, and that would include big mortgage players like Bank of America and Wells Fargo.

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Get the Lead Out!

Lead poisoning is serious stuff, particularly for children under the age of 6. And sadly, children this age are more likely to come in contact with dust contaminated by lead simply by doing the things little kids do. HUD recommends a pretty rigorous cleaning regimen for older homes to minimize the risks of lead poisoning.

Lead abatement — the process of getting rid of the lead altogether and properly disposing of it — is an expensive proposition. However, yesterday HUD announced that they will award $13,000,000 in grants for 25 local projects including lead abatement, research, public education, and related activities.

Lead paint has not been put in American homes since 1978, but there are still a lot of homes that have lead paint contamination. The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) estimates that number at roughly 24,000,000 homes. Under federal law, the buyer of any home built before 1978 has to be warned of the possibility of lead contamination, if the seller knows about lead based pain he must disclose it (even institutional sellers like banks must sign this disclosure), and all buyers must receive this pamphlet on the dangers of lead based paint (PDF).

Friday Figures for 2/26/2010

Happy Friday! I’m glad you could join me for Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. Are you planning on touring, making an offer, or listing a home in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend? This is what you need to be aware of first!

Summary: Available units remain just under 11,000 at 10887. Contingent and pending units rose slightly to roughly 14,600, but the real question is how many of the 9800+ short sales in that number will ever close? The number of short sales that actually close has been inching up, but it will still be a long time before we work through currently contingent properties. Our rental market is still going strong, with available units continuing to decline. It’s a great time to be an investor with cash and plenty of patience in Las Vegas.

Other Information: There’s a lot going on in the housing market nationally, so please bear with me on these rather economics heavy items. Rental prices suggest that housing prices are a little high, but still closer to the bottom than the top nationally (this probably does not apply locally).  The same author points out that the number of available rental units has surged, depressing rental prices (locally we have a divergence between available apartments and available rental homes/condos). The Case-Shiller index shows “mixed” results, which is no surprise to me. While sales of existing homes is brisk due to artificially low prices driven by the foreclosure market, the sale of new homes is hitting record lows. The CEO of Freddie Mac does expect a new wave of foreclosures, but President Obama wants to prevent that by requiring HAMP review before foreclosing — an already overwhelmed system. This of course will only be helpful if principal cramdown is on the table as a modification. The Review-Journal told us what my readers already know: that investors with cash are the driving force in our market right now. Mortgage rates are inching up, but I am having a hard time panicking over rates at 5.05%.

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Vegas Property Values by Zip Code

This morning, the Las Vegas Review Journal was kind enough to point out that prices of sold homes in every Vegas area Zip code declined in 2009. Some areas only declined 10-11%, while others saw drops of 57-60%. On average, prices dropped 23%. Be sure to click on the map insert for a detailed view of every Zip code. One thing worth noting is that “ZIP code 89146, south of Charleston Boulevard between Rainbow and Decatur boulevards, was the only area with positive appreciation (3 percent) in 2008. The median price dropped 57 percent last year to $110,000.”

However, Larry Murphy, President of the company that provided the data, sees some signs for optimism. First, there are positive technical indicators if you were to put prices on a chart. Second, new homes simply can’t be built for what existing homes sell for in Vegas right now — if your  home burned to the ground, you would be better off financially buying a new place and bulldozing the old place than trying to rebuild!  And finally, there is tremendous opportunity for investors to purchase property and having positive “cash flow” — bringing in more money in rent than the property costs to maintain. While Mr. Murphy does think prices will stay near current levels for the rest of the year, he sees our market as “undervalued.”

Friday Figures for 2/19/2010

It’s time for Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system, which now finally supports access by Macintosh users. Touring, making an offer, or listing a home in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend? Read this first!

Summary: Below, I am including year-over-year figures to show just how far our local real estate market has come. We’re not out of the woods yet, but it is better than it was! Available units are steady at 10902, still just under 11,000. Distressed sales are fairly steady, but down sharply year over year. Contingent and pending units continue to trend upwards; will they break through 15,000 in a few weeks, or will they stay steady around 14,000? Actual sold units seem to be settling in to a “new normal” of roughly 5oo per week. It doesn’t take a lot of math to see that we will be working through those 14,000 contingent units for some time, and many will never close — particularly short sales. The number of rentals available continues to decline and median rent per square foot is edging up, which is great news for investors.

Other Information: More distressed sales are expected in the next few yearsStandard and Poor thinks it will take almost 3 years to clear “shadow” inventory — but can banks prove they actually hold the mortgage? At least short sales are (slowly) starting to move. Many homeowners have become pessimistic, and some Baby Boomers have decided to just stay put until property values rise again (assuming unforeseen circumstances do not force a move). The President is in town today, where he plans to unveil yet another housing help initiative to the tune of $1.5 billion in TARP funds. (and n all likelihood say nice things about Harry Reid). And just for fun, top 10 versions of “Viva Las Vegas.”

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Welcome to Vegas, Mr. President

President Obama is scheduled to arrive in Vegas tomorrow night. It is unclear whether he plans to meet with local officials, or apologize for his most recent round of Vegas-bashing. It’s probably a good bet he’ll say what a swell guy Senator Reid is. I wonder if anyone is taking odds on that.

Since the President is showing up in the foreclosure capital of America, I would like to hear what he’s got to really say about the fact that mortgage delinquencies are at an all time high. With Nevada’s unemployment rate higher than the national average, what would he like to say about job creation? Because let’s face it, there is no permanent solution to the mortgage and housing problem until people have reliable jobs.

Update: Mr. Goodman has indicated that he will accept an apology from Mr. Obama, as long as it includes buying him a martini. Mr. President, Mr. Mayor takes Bombay Sapphire.

Friday Figures for 2/12/2010

Happy Lincoln’s Birthday and welcome to Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. Here’s what you and your Realtor need to know before touring, making an offer, or listing a home in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend.

Summary: Available units dropped ever so slightly to 10927. Prices of available units are in a tight range not really reflected by the week-to-week change. I am concerned by the jump in available condos under $50,000, but many of these are just price drops from the $50,000-$100,000 range, and the median price is only down by $100. Pending and contingent sales rose over 14,000 again; it seems likely that this number will remain in a tight range just like the number of available units. It is worth noticing that over 9500 of those units are short sales and many are at risk of foreclosing before closing! More short sales are closing as a percentage of total closings, but it will still take well over a year to clear out the current contingent short sales alone, let alone any currently available short sales. Thanks to a surge in signed leases, the number of available rentals has dropped below 5000.

Other Information: The Review-Journal points out that January sales were up 17% year over year, and that 21% of existing homes sold were short sales. Unfortunately, that doesn’t make a dent in available short sales. Zillow does think we are putting in a bottom for prices this year after a further “correction,” but I think that’s only with the cooperation of the banks and the appraisers! After all, even though foreclosures were down in January month over month, they were still up year over year and a “surge” is expected. Average monthly apartment rent has declined to $766 due to a higher vacancy rate, but rental houses are still moving fast at a median rent of $1095. Those of you who are new to the area should be aware that we are in the process of rolling out Real ID compliant drivers licenses; this article tells you what you need to know and what you need to bring with you to the DMV. I wonder how many women will have a hard time producing a marriage certificate.

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One Engineering Marvel Deserves Another

Today we have more information on the bridge being built parallel to the Hoover Dam. It’s a 1900 foot span, 900 ft above the river. Although you’ll be able to see the bridge from the Dam, only pedestrians will be able to see the Dam from the bridge. Also, traffic patterns to will be different once the bridge opens, so be alert to changes if you’ve traveled this way before.

Hard Money Lenders for Nevada Projects

If you are excited to read that headline, you aren’t going to like what follows.

For the rest of you, let me back up and briefly explain what “hard money” is all about. In short, hard money is a loan it would be “hard” to get anyplace else. According to eHow, “A hard money lender is a person or institution that offers loans, usually for real estate, with low credit restrictions but high rates and fees. Hard money lenders are often considered borrowers of last resort for those who are facing foreclosures or needing loans under abnormal conditions. Due to the high prices associated with hard money lenders, they are generally not a borrower’s first choice.” Wikipedia has much more on the topic.

The Las Vegas Review Journal reports that hard money lenders are in trouble here in Nevada. They’ve been stung so hard by foreclosures that they in essence want ways around state law and state regulations. Specifically, they want the right to manage real estate without either a real estate license and the additional real estate management permit required by law (NRS 118A), and they want to over-ride a privacy law prohibiting investors from having the contact information of other investors in a given project.

While I think it is probably a good idea for investors in one project to be able to communicate with one another, I think it would be a bad idea to let these investors (particularly out-of-state investors) manage property without a license. A good property manager not only knows the law and collects the rent, she or her staff is available to handle emergencies (NRS 118A.260), her actions prevent damage or degradation of the property, and in many cases she can even add value to a property through practices that maintain a high occupancy rate. This is good both for tenants and the investors. It’s even good for the neighbors.

Sure, it will cost some money to do the job right and follow the laws that were enacted to protect all Nevadans. That’s the cost of doing business.